Everything is an Opinion unless…
Ward Farnsworth
Everything is an opinion unless tested by reason
I need to tell myself that everything is an opinion;
So I need to reserve / suspend my judgment - until I use reason to test the opinions
Opinion=> Hypothesis testing=> Facts
What is Hypothesis testing?
Lets start with Hypothesis:
If I do This (Independent Variable -Cause )
Then That shall happen (Dependent variable - Effect)
Hypothesis is mere opinion; just anecdote
So do hypothesis testing : to see if there is fact to anecdote:
Null Hypothesis :(notation):Ho: There is no proof that your Opinion is right
Alternate Hypothesis: H1:: Your opinion (If I do this , then that shall happen) is right!
In statistics , how do you do this hypothesis testing?
Set up an experiment to test succees or failure of your opinion;
and conduct experiments
And note the outcomes: pass/ fail;
Find the probability of your opinion : that it is repeatable using several data inputs;
If results that support your opinion is repeatable 95% or more of outcomes => then the p-value : is 5% or less ,
This indicates that there is high degree of probability that you need to reject Null Hypothesis !
That :Alternatively, if the experiment outcome is not repeatable at least 95% of times,
Then there is highly likely role of chance or randomness in the outcome
Which means that , you need to accept the Null Hypothesis : that :
There is no proof that your Opinion is right
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